Forecast mode

Next General Election Projection

A heuristic projection built from the same ward census, deprivation, turnout, and election signals used on the map. It assigns wards to official 2024 Westminster constituencies, compares the forecast against the current MP, and rolls the ward-level signal up into constituency forecasts.

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Forecast Snapshot

Forecast Seat Totals

Current Seat Split

Constituency Forecasts

Party:

Ward Forecasts

Party:

General Election Correction

Apply GE turnout correction

Local elections and general elections are not the same electorate. Turning this on applies a small current-era party correction that includes Reform UK, slightly lifts Labour and Reform relative to the raw local roll-up, and trims the parties that usually overperform in low-turnout locals. It does not add new data or change the ward-to-constituency map.

Projected Outcome Map

Projected constituency outcome map with the GE turnout correction applied

Constituencies are coloured by the projected winner. Grey seats are too close to call. The image is generated server-side from the same forecast file used by the tables, and the GE correction switch above swaps between raw and GE-adjusted versions.