Don't take this too seriously. It's a thought experiment, at best.

Bonus spotlight

Makerfield and Greater Manchester

A focused readout built from the same ward-level census, deprivation, turnout, and election signals used elsewhere in the app. Makerfield is rolled up from its exact ward overlaps; Greater Manchester mayoralty is scored from the ten GM authorities and their wards.

At a Glance

Makerfield Constituency

Top signals

Authorities touched

Ward roll-up

Makerfield GE Correction

This only changes the Makerfield constituency section. It nudges the local roll-up toward a general-election electorate using the same small party-level correction as the forecast page, and it includes Reform UK rather than treating the older party system as a proxy. The Greater Manchester mayoralty section stays on its own model, because that is a different contest rather than a Westminster seat.

Greater Manchester Mayoralty

Top signals

Authorities covered

Ward roll-up